Tropical storm likely for Windward Islands, second system strengthens in Gulf

A potential tropical cyclone continues to move rapidly towards the southern Windward Islands today.

Invest 93-L continues to only slowly organize near the Yucatan Peninsula as is pulls northward.

Two things will help: The system is expected to cross over land and make it into the Gulf of Mexico, and the Hurricane Hunters are planning to fly in for a closer look.

The one in the Caribbean (#2 on map) is expected to move into the Gulf and has a chance of becoming Tropical Storm Bret Monday or Tuesday.

If the system remains disorganized, it could have a broad wind field and dump excessive rains all along the Gulf.

While development is likely, most guidance suggests the system will get no stronger than a tropical storm.

While the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico, meteorologist Kaiti Blake said the likelihood the system has a direct impact on San Antonio is slim.


Rainfall accumulations of two to four inches (50 to 100 millimetres) are possible.

It's too early to say with any certainty where the center will come ashore. The reason for the low confidence forecast as of now is because of numerous differences in reliable forecast models on where it will eventually track.

The disturbance is forecast to keep heading west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 miles per hour over the tropical Atlantic region over the next few days, according to weather authorities.

Tropical storm warnings or watches are in effect for Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The Met Office says some flash-flooding is likely in low-lying areas. And even if it only reaches tropical storm strength, anyone who remember 2001's Allison knows that it doesn't have to be a hurricane to wreak havoc on an area.

There is high confidence in the development of this low into a tropical system, but the confidence level is much lower in regards to the movement. At 2 p.m., the system was located about 240 miles east, southeast of Trinidad and moving at about 25 mph with sustained winds of 40 mph.

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